When Your Patio Can Turn Your First Floor into a Basement

Frequent readers of our blog know there are many quirks and pitfalls in the National Flood Insurance Program of which policyholders must be aware. Here in the Garden State, many have seen their flood claims drastically reduced because of the basement exclusion. The Standard Flood Insurance Policy defines a basement as “[a]ny area of the building, including any sunken room or sunken portion of a room, having its floor below ground level (subgrade) on all sides.” Pursuant to the recent 1st Circuit opinion in Matusevich v. Middlesex Mutual Assurance Company, alterations or improvements sitting on top of the ground can effectively alter the ground level and change a first floor into a basement.

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The Road to ALE, from Loss to Being Incurred, Part 2 - "Uninhabitable Conditions"

During the 15 to 30 seconds that my home rolled and shook on Sunday from the 3.5 earthquake centered in Baldwin Hills, California, I was prompted to think about the habitability or rather “uninhabitable conditions” I may encounter if the shaking got any worse or continued. Earthquakes are rather commonplace in California and thankfully this earthquake, which was centered within 10 miles of my home, ceased and I was able to continue on without damage or loss.

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North Atlantic

NA Map

East Pacific

EP Map

97L Approaches Tropical Storm Strength



Air Force Hurricane Hunters were unable to find a closed circulation in the midst of Invest 97L, but the system is still on the verge of becoming a tropical storm. Flight-level winds at 2034Z (4:34 pm EDT) were sustained at up to 36 knots (41 mph) on the northwest side of 97L. This translates to ground-level sustained winds of around 32 knots (37 mph), or just below the 39-mph threshold for tropical storm formation. However, a tropical wave cannot be classified by NHC as a tropical depression or tropical storm until it has a closed circulation. The lack of a fully closed circulation was manifested in much weaker winds on the south side of 97L. Southwest winds at flight level were only about 5-6 knots, and no significant westerly winds were found.


Figure 1. Enhanced infrared image of Invest 97L at 2115Z (5:15 pm EDT) Tuesday, September 27, 2016. Image credit: NASA/MSFC Earth Science Office.

It shouldn’t take too much longer for 97L to close off a circulation and intensify enough to become Tropical Storm Matthew. Satellite loops showed that showers and thunderstorms were increasing in coverage and strength in the core of 97L. The system’s upper reaches are well ventilated, with excellent outflow supporting the continued growth of thunderstorms. The usual nighttime maximum in shower and thunderstorm activity could be enough to give 97L a name. In a special outlook issued at 4:20 pm EDT Tuesday, the National Hurricane Center gave 97L a 90% chance of becoming at least a tropical depression by Thursday afternoon.

The outlook for 97L
As we discussed this morning, 97L has a long road ahead of it, with many twists and turns possible over the next week or more. Models continue to support the idea that fast-moving 97L will sweep through the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday, possibly as a strong tropical storm. The strongest winds and heaviest rains of 4 - 8”, with locally higher amounts, can be expected over the islands just north of where the center of 97L is, including the islands of St. Lucia, Martinique, Dominica, and Guadaloupe. The storm will continue westwards on Thursday, and make its closest approach to the ABC islands of the Netherlands Antilles--Aruba, Bonaire, and Curacao--on Thursday night and Friday morning. These islands will be on the weak (left) side of the storm, and may escape receiving tropical storm winds. However, heavy rains of 2 - 4” can be expected, as predicted by the 12Z (2 am EDT) Tuesday run of the HWRF model (see Figure 2).


Figure 2. Cumulative rainfall projected by the 12Z Tuesday run of the HWRF model through Sunday afternoon, October 2. Image credit: NOAA/NWS/NCEP.

As it moves into the southeast Caribbean--a challenging place for tropical cyclones, due to persistent sinking air--97L may struggle. Models are in fairly close agreement that 97L’s track will bend slightly toward the west or even southwest in the Caribbean, which could bring the center fairly close to the northern coast of Venezuela, leading to interaction with land that would hinder its growth. Toward the weekend, it appears that an upper-level low over the eastern U.S. will provide an opening for 97L to make a very sharp northward turn. As it enters the central Caribbean, 97L may have a better opportunity to intensify, and residents of the Greater Antilles--including Cuba, Haiti, Jamaica, and the Dominican Republic--will need to keep a close eye on it. While a sharp right-hand turn might seem implausible, there are a number of cases of storms taking such a northward bend, especially in October, with the classic example being 1954’s Hurricane Hazel (see Figure 3 below).

The 12Z runs of the GFS, UKMET, and European models--our best three long-range track models--all support the idea of 97L moving north from the Caribbean into the Bahamas, as soon as Monday of next week (GFS) or as late as Wednesday (UKMET and Euro). Whether or not the U.S. East Coast is threatened by 97L will depend on how soon the expected northward turn occurs and on the evolution of this weekend’s upper-level trough. These factors are too far out to be predicted with any confidence. The same is true for 97L’s eventual peak intensity, although the waters of the Caribbean and northwest Atlantic are at record or near-record warmth, more than capable of supporting a powerful hurricane if the atmospheric preconditions fall into place.


Figure 3. A comparision of the track of 1954’s Hurricane Hazel (left) with the GEFS ensemble model tracks for 97L produced at 18Z Tuesday (left). These ensemble members are produced by running the same model for the same period, each time varying the starting-point conditions in order to simulate the uncertainty in our observations of the atmosphere. The idea is not that 97L will mimic Hazel but that the sharp right-turn depicted by the GEFS does have a precedent.

In the Central and Eastern Pacific: Ulika and Roslyn
In the Central Pacific, Tropical Storm Ulika formed on Tuesday morning. Ulika is not expected to threaten any land areas, and is forecast to pass several hundred miles to the southeast of Hawaii early next week as a tropical depression. Further to the east, about 500 miles west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, Tropical Storm Roslyn is hanging on by a thread amid strong vertical wind shear that will push progressively drier air into its core. Rosyln should be a remnant low by Wednesday afternoon if not sooner.


Figure 4. Infrared satellite image of Tropical Storms Uliki (left) and Rosyln (right) as of 2045Z (4:45 pm EDT) Tuesday, September 27, 2016. Image credit: CIMSS/University of Wisconsin/SSEC.

Megi makes its second landfall
The Northwest Pacific was quiet on Tuesday afternoon apart from deadly Typhoon Megi, which slammed into Taiwan on Tuesday local time, causing at least 4 deaths and hundreds of injuries (see our Tuesday morning post for more details). According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center, Megi swept onto the southeast coast of China just north of Quanzhou around 18Z Tuesday (2:00 am Wednesday local time). This landfall is about 50 miles northeast of where devastating Typhoon Meranti slammed ashore only a few days ago. Torrential rains, flooding, and landslides are once again possible as a rapidly weakening Megi moves inland and pushes moisture against the area’s rugged terrain.

We’ll be back by late Wednesday morning with our next update.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters

Today's Storm Reports

- Tornado
- Hail
- Wind
Click on marker for details

Today's Tornado Reports - No reports received
Today's Hail Reports
Time Size Location County State Lat Lon Comments
0310 125 5 NNE HONEA PATH ANDERSON SC 34.51000 -82.36000 MOTORIST REPORTS AT LEAST HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL NNE OF HONEA PATH... SC. (GSP)
0335 100 RUSTBURG CAMPBELL VA 37.28000 -79.10000 BROADCAST MEDIA RELAYS REPORT OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL FALLING WITHIN THE CITY OF RUSTBURG... VIRGINIA. (RNK)
0345 100 CONCORD CAMPBELL VA 37.35000 -78.98000 BROADCAST MEDIA RELAYS REPORT OF QUARTER SIZE HAIL FALLING WITHIN THE CITY OF CONCORD... VIRGINIA. (RNK)
2012 100 3 SW BOILING SPRINGS SC SPARTANBURG SC 35.01000 -82.01000 1 INCH HAIL SW OF BOILING SPRINGS... SC. (GSP)
2019 100 3 SSW BOILING SPRINGS SPARTANBURG SC 35.00000 -82.01000 PUBLIC REPORTED NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON ASHEVILLE HWY NEAR FIRST BAPTIST NORTH SPARTANBURG. (GSP)
2024 100 3 SE BOILING SPRINGS SPARTANBURG SC 35.01000 -81.95000 QUARTER SIZE HAIL ON BENTLEY COURT (GSP)
2243 100 3 N SHOW LOW NAVAJO AZ 34.28000 -110.04000 (FGZ)
Today's Wind Reports
Time Speed Location County State Lat Lon Comments
1947 UNK 2 ESE WESTMINSTER OCONEE SC 34.66000 -83.06000 BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED A TREE FELL ON A HOME ALONG SEED FARM RD IN WESTMINSTER. TIME DETERMINED FROM RADAR DATA. (GSP)
1952 UNK 2 S SENECA OCONEE SC 34.66000 -82.96000 911 CALL CENTER REPORTED A TREE DOWN SOUTH OF SENECA. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR DATA. (GSP)
2000 UNK WSW OAKWAY OCONEE SC 34.60000 -83.03000 SOCIAL MEDIA POST SHOWED A LARGE SECTION OF A TREE DOWN IN THE OAKWAY COMMUNITY. PEA SIZED HAIL OCCURRED DURING THE DAMAGING WINDS. (GSP)
2005 60 3 SW BOILING SPRINGS SC SPARTANBURG SC 35.01000 -82.01000 VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS SW OF BOILING SPRINGS... SC. (GSP)
2006 60 5 N COWPENS CHEROKEE SC 35.09000 -81.80000 VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS OBSERVED BY NWS FORECASTER AT HOME. (GSP)
2010 UNK 3 SSW BOILING SPRINGS SPARTANBURG SC 35.00000 -81.99000 SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT OF NICKEL SIZE HAIL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF SPARTANBURG. (GSP)
2054 UNK 4 E THICKETTY CHEROKEE SC 35.02000 -81.65000 COUNTY OFFICIAL REPORTED 1 TREE DOWN ON OWENS LN SOUTH OF GAFFNEY... SC. (GSP)
2102 UNK 6 SSE GAFFNEY CHEROKEE SC 34.99000 -81.62000 COUNTY OFFICIAL REPORTED 1 TREE DOWN ON STATE RD S-11-54 SOUTH OF GAFFNEY... SC. (GSP)
2111 UNK 3 W BASSETT HENRY VA 36.76000 -80.04000 TREE DOWN OVER ROAD AT 7100 BLOCK OF FAIRYSTONE PARK HWY. TIME RADAR ESTIMATED. (RNK)
2118 UNK 1 SW BASSETT HENRY VA 36.75000 -80.00000 TREE DOWN ON MARY HUNTER DR. TIME RADAR ESTIMATED. (RNK)
2124 UNK 2 NE BASSETT HENRY VA 36.78000 -79.97000 TREE DOWN OVER ROAD AT 600 BLOCK OF BASSET DR. TIME RADAR ESTIMATED. (RNK)
2130 UNK 5 ESE BASSETT HENRY VA 36.74000 -79.90000 TREE DOWN IN A BACKYARD. TIME RADAR ESTIMATED. (RNK)